The Harvest is a new series covering insights, updates, and developments in agriculture.

Happy Sunday! I hope you're doing well. This is the final edition of the year—we’ll be back on schedule starting Sunday, January 5th. Wishing you a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!

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Today we cover:

1. USDA's updated 2024 farm income statement

2. $300 million initiative to boost U.S. agricultural exports

3. Cracking the code on photosynthesis

4. USDA's investment in high-speed internet for rural areas

5. Egg Prices and beef market surge amid production challenges

(1) Farm economy’s 2024 balancing act

The USDA’s updated 2024 farm income forecast offers a marginally better outlook than its September estimate, but the challenges for farmers remain significant. Net farm income, a key measure of profitability, is now projected at $140.7 billion for 2024, up slightly from the $140.0 billion forecast earlier. This represents a -4.1% decline from 2023’s $146.7 billion and a steep -22.6% drop from the record $181.9 billion in 2022.

When adjusted for inflation, net farm income is expected to decrease by -$9.5 billion (-6.3%) in 2024. Net cash farm income, another profitability metric, is forecast to fall by -$5.7 billion (-3.5%). Despite these declines, both measures remain above their 20-year averages, offering some long-term perspective.

Crop producers face steep losses
Crop receipts are expected to drop by -$25 billion (-9.2%), driven by lower prices for key commodities like corn (-20.8%) and soybeans (-12.3%). Cotton receipts are forecast to plummet -26.9%, while wheat receipts fall -7.0%. Rice is a rare bright spot, with a projected +4.5% increase due to higher sales volumes.

Animal sector sees gains
On the other hand, animal and animal product receipts are set to rise by +$21 billion (+8.4%), reaching $270.6 billion. Higher prices are driving increases in cattle (+7.2%), hogs (+5.7%), and milk (+11.5%). Egg receipts are projected to surge by +39.4%, while turkey receipts are forecast to drop sharply (-43.3%).

Expenses and government payments decline
Total production expenses are expected to decrease by -$8 billion (-1.7%) to $453.9 billion, with feed costs seeing the largest drop. However, government payments are forecast to fall -13.6% to $10.6 billion, reflecting reduced disaster aid and Dairy Margin Coverage payouts.

Farm sector equity grows
Farm sector equity is forecast to rise +5.2% to $3.68 trillion, driven by increasing real estate values. Debt-to-asset ratios are expected to improve slightly, though working capital is projected to decline by -6.9%.

Farmers are navigating a tough landscape, balancing shrinking revenues with fluctuating costs. The slight improvement in forecasts offers some relief, but the road ahead remains uncertain.

(2) USDA launches $300 million initiative to boost U.S. agricultural exports

On December 19, 2024, the USDA unveiled a significant step to strengthen U.S. agriculture’s global presence: $300 million in grants through the Regional Agricultural Promotion Program (RAPP). This funding is targeted at diversifying export markets and reducing reliance on traditional trade partners, with a sharp focus on emerging opportunities in Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia.

Why this matters
Emerging regions are stepping into the spotlight. Africa, for example, is home to some of the fastest-growing economies, while Southeast Asia’s rising middle class is driving demand for premium food products. Latin America, despite being a competitor in some agricultural sectors, offers untapped opportunities for niche U.S. exports.

A strategic response
This program also serves as a response to rising competition from countries like Brazil, China, and the European Union, which have been aggressively expanding their market share in these regions. By equipping U.S. producers with the tools to compete, the USDA aims to ensure American agriculture remains a key player in the global food system.

(3) Cracking the code on photosynthesis

A little reminder on how photosynthesis works:

Essex researchers boosted photosynthesis in Arabidopsis thaliana by 30% through gene silencing, leading to 20% higher seed yields. Since these genes exist across many species, this could work for major food crops. The team is already testing tomatoes and planning wider trials.

Key benefits

• Higher crop yields with fewer resources

• Reduced need for chemical fertilizers

• Smaller environmental footprint

• Flexible implementation through GM or non-GM methods

Real-world impact 
The technology addresses urgent agricultural challenges: growing food demand, limited farmland, and climate pressures. The team is pursuing licensing partnerships to bring their innovation to farmers worldwide.

Next steps 
Current focus is on scaling the technology for commercial agriculture. The team seeks industry partners to help implement their findings across different crops and regions.

(4) USDA's investment in high-speed internet for rural areas

The USDA has announced $313 million in new funding through its ReConnect program to bring high-speed internet to rural America. The initiative will reach 680,000 people across 18 states, requiring speeds of at least 100 Mbps for both uploads and downloads.

Impact and implementation 
This funding supports modern farming through precision agriculture, drones, and data analytics, while enabling rural communities to access telehealth, remote education, and online business opportunities. As Secretary Vilsack notes, reliable internet serves as a catalyst for rural innovation and job creation.

Notable projects

• Michigan: $6M to Waldron Communication Co. for connecting 599 residents, 18 businesses, and 32 farms

• Arizona: $14.7M to CoxCom LLC for serving 6,500+ people across three counties

• Washington: $19.1M to Colville Tribes for improving reservation connectivity

Broader context 
The ReConnect program is part of the Biden administration's "Internet for All" initiative, targeting universal high-speed internet access by 2030. To date, it has invested $4.4 billion across 360 projects nationwide.

(5) 2025 Food price outlook: Eggs and beef

Eggs under pressure 
Avian flu has eliminated 15 million egg-laying hens since October 2024, driving prices up 38% to $3.65 per dozen from $2.14 last year. The holiday season has further strained supplies, impacting both household budgets and food inflation.

Beef market challenges 
U.S. cattle herds have decreased 3% due to drought and high feed costs, pushing beef prices above the five-year average. Despite strong consumer demand, particularly during holidays, shrinking herds raise concerns about 2025 supply and prices.

Looking ahead

• Eggs: Recovery depends on successful biosecurity measures and flock rebuilding

• Beef: Supply constraints likely to continue unless herd numbers increase

• Both markets require long-term strategies for stability, from farm biosecurity to sustainable herd management